Category Archives: economía

Ditch the Dollar?

dollar_chart1For years, economists, journalists and pundits have been predicting an end to the U.S. dollar as the reserve global currency. And for years, mainstream Americans and politicians have ignored the warning, presuming that the wolf-criers are simply anti-capitalist or anti-American.

But with the Fed’s most recent round of printing $1.2 trillion in ‘quantitative easing’, the only easing going on is the value of the dollar. To battle deflation, low housing prices and a crippled credit market, the Federal Reserve’s bold action will perhaps prove effective, but in the long-term might also prove the impetus to cede America’s leading superpower status.

America’s sugar daddy has already cautioned against the mind numbing spending spree taking place on Capitol Hill and the White House. They’ve slipped the hint—there are limits to their generosity. As long as their investments prove profitable, China will remain our loan sharks, but the minute the spending and printing begin bringing down their balance sheets, they will walk away. And so will the world.

Not only China has voiced concern, next week another ally plans to recommend ditching the green-back—the UN. Russia has been on the ‘ditch to dollar’ bandwagon for years and has kept up the rhetoric this week by calling for a global supercurrency.

From Reuters:

Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.

Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.

“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.

“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”

What would the United States economy look like without the supremacy of the dollar? Hopefully, we will never know…

Barclay’s Stock Plummets 13%: Party Time

Outrageous.

Last night on Italy’s Lake of Como, eighty Barclay’s bankers and clients gathered together in the storied Villa Erba to celebrate with their fiddles as Rome continued burning around them.  And while the paparazzi wary bankers spent two days and 700,000 Euros, the British Prime Minister traveled across Britain to sell his rescue package to hardworking British voters.

The bankers banned the paparazzi, but not the Greco di Tufo wine, ricotta stuffed ravioli, fillet of Brunello, apple pastry and chocolate mousse. Their sacrifice of the evening was to forgo a planned trip to La Scala, ostensibly due to the 13 percent of company value lost that day, but in reality, they wanted to avoid the aggressive paparazzi that would have been free to snap away in front of the legendary opera house.

It wasn’t just a once a year broker-client excursion. Just last week the oblivious bankers enjoyed a week in one of the Cote d’Azur’s finest hotels priced at around three thousand Euros per night.

The fury over the trips has little to do with class envy and everything to do with discretion. Hopefully, these Neros will be awakened to the reality of the global economic inferno, ignited by financial institutions like Barclay’s.

Global Financial Meltdown

How many more black Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays are in store for the world markets? The quickie summit convened by the EU leadership over the weekend apparently inspired the same sort of confidence garnered by Paulson’s plan passed last Friday.

The U.S mortgage crisis and its resulting effect on European banks, combined with skepticism over Paulson’s plan of recovery, sent European markets tumbling. Russia and Italy were even forced to halt trading. According to Le Figaro, traders worry whether the price tag of Paulson’s plan was big enough.

As for their own plan? Reminding everyone why there hasn’t been meaningful progress in the adoption of a European Constitution, EU leaders failed to agree on a solution to the economic crisis.

From the Telegraph:

France, Germany, Italy and the UK could not agree on a single course of action because – as Mr Sarkozy effectively admitted in a characteristically irritable press conference performance – they all have different economic circumstances and needs. He described this as having “different cultures”, but it adds up to the same thing: France and Germany do not have property-owning traditions that produce house-price booms and busts, the UK population has much greater credit liabilities than the French, etc, etc.

Late Monday, the German government provided an additional 15 billion Euros in liquidity to the 35 billion already pledged to help the German lender Hypo Real Estate.

Elsewhere….

Saudi Arabia’s market, the Gulf’s largest, was off 9 percent. Dubai’s Financial Market fell almost 7 percent, its lowest fall since ’06, and Abu Dhabi’s index lost 5 percent.

The head of Al Dhafra Brokerage Vyas Jayabhanu, via UAE’s Gulf News, argued: “Uncertainty prevails despite the U.S. government passing the package, and there is this lingering fear that the $700 billion may not be enough.”

Israel’s TA-25 down 4.63%

Japan:

The Nikkei stock average tumbled 4.3 percent to a four-and-a-half-year closing low on Monday.

The Korea Exchange in Seoul, South Korea finished the day off 4.3 percent.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index was down nearly 4.9 percent in late-day trading and the Shanghai Composite fell about 5.2 percent. The Taiwan Weighted shed 4.1 percent.

The Australian Securities Exchange plunged about 3.4 percent to 4,544.70, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was off 4.7 percent of its value, falling to 16,853.85.

Russia’s Micex Index plunged 18 percent before trading was halted for a second time today.

Europe:

Germany’s DAX: Down 7.07%

Italy’s MIBTEL: Down 8.58%

France’s CAC: Down 9.04%

Sweden’s OMX: Down 7.24%

UK’s FTSE 100: Down 7.85%

With the crisis infecting global stock markets, it’s baffling why neither American Presidential candidate appears willing to blame government officials who fostered this failure through their social engineering and their belief that home-ownership is one of the inalienable rights guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution.

Perhaps the shock of looking at the big board and seeing the Dow off some 800 points on Monday will shock the leaders into dialogue, although I suspect one party is a bit more reluctant to discuss their role in the current fiasco.